Post by account_disabled on Feb 27, 2024 5:56:32 GMT -5
This year's El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to exacerbate the effects on global food prices of India's ban on rice exports and Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grains deal, potentially fueling inflation in emerging markets. Starting in September, the natural temperature fluctuation in the Pacific Ocean known as El Niño is forecast to bring months of extreme heat to parts of southern Asia and Central America, as well as heavy rain over the Andes. The phenomenon often disrupts crop cycles and is likely to add further strain to global food production and prices after heavy rains forced India to ban exports of non-basmati white rice and Russia bombed grain terminals. Ukrainians. Combined, the three shocks could boost household inflation expectations in poorer countries, where food typically accounts for about 30 percent of typical spending on consumer goods and services, twice as much as in developed economies.
That contagion effect could increase pressure on emerging market central banks to keep interest rates high for longer, generating volatility in local stock and sovereign bond markets, which are expected to see Jordan Mobile Number List rate cuts later this year. anus. However, "complacent" investors have yet to assess how extreme weather will influence financial and commodity markets, said Zanna Aleksahhina, a grains analyst at commodities research group Mintec. “We are looking like crazy at the weather forecasts two to six weeks in advance, they are going to be crucial. But the market still does not want to take into account any type of risk premium,” he stated. The measures adopted by India and Russia are already beginning to be seen in global food prices. The United Nations FAO Food Price Index fell 26 percent between March 2022 and June, but rose 1.3 percent in July, while vegetable oil prices rose percent.
International wheat prices rose 1.6 percent, their first month-on-month increase since December, while the FAO All Rice Price Index rose 2.8 percent to its highest level since September 2011. Global benchmark cocoa futures have risen to around $3,500 a tonne, up from $2,400 a year ago, the highest level since 2011. "El Niño increases the risk for the crop in the coming year," he said. Jonathan Haines, senior research analyst at Gro-Intelligence. “El Niño tends to peak between November and February, but the implications for food inflation, fiscal budgets, monetary policy, [gross domestic product]” economy and trade, particularly in emerging markets, they last longer,” said Laura Sánchez, head of sustainability equity research for the Americas at Morgan Stanley. In the face of a strong El Niño, “emerging market central banks would need to keep interest rates higher for longer to combat more persistent inflation,” said Diana Iovanel, markets economist at Capital Economics.
That contagion effect could increase pressure on emerging market central banks to keep interest rates high for longer, generating volatility in local stock and sovereign bond markets, which are expected to see Jordan Mobile Number List rate cuts later this year. anus. However, "complacent" investors have yet to assess how extreme weather will influence financial and commodity markets, said Zanna Aleksahhina, a grains analyst at commodities research group Mintec. “We are looking like crazy at the weather forecasts two to six weeks in advance, they are going to be crucial. But the market still does not want to take into account any type of risk premium,” he stated. The measures adopted by India and Russia are already beginning to be seen in global food prices. The United Nations FAO Food Price Index fell 26 percent between March 2022 and June, but rose 1.3 percent in July, while vegetable oil prices rose percent.
International wheat prices rose 1.6 percent, their first month-on-month increase since December, while the FAO All Rice Price Index rose 2.8 percent to its highest level since September 2011. Global benchmark cocoa futures have risen to around $3,500 a tonne, up from $2,400 a year ago, the highest level since 2011. "El Niño increases the risk for the crop in the coming year," he said. Jonathan Haines, senior research analyst at Gro-Intelligence. “El Niño tends to peak between November and February, but the implications for food inflation, fiscal budgets, monetary policy, [gross domestic product]” economy and trade, particularly in emerging markets, they last longer,” said Laura Sánchez, head of sustainability equity research for the Americas at Morgan Stanley. In the face of a strong El Niño, “emerging market central banks would need to keep interest rates higher for longer to combat more persistent inflation,” said Diana Iovanel, markets economist at Capital Economics.