Post by account_disabled on Feb 28, 2024 5:39:57 GMT -5
Last year, the economic vibes were so bad that it felt like we were talking about a recession in the US. Now, people are wondering if the "vibecession" is really over. And maybe it is? The mood is certainly improving. American consumer confidence is on the rise again, with many people apparently celebrating ( mildly ) lower gas prices. The Federal Reserve also seems convinced, with Jay Powell stating at the FOMC press conference on July 26 that: The [Fed] staff now has a notable slowdown in growth starting later this year in the forecast, but given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting a recession. Powell even highlighted the best vibes. I would say that having general inflation lowers that much. . . It will strengthen the public's general feeling that inflation is going down, which in turn, we hope, will help inflation continue to go down.
Of course, Powell's announcement sparked a flurry of mockery on Twitter from people proclaiming that we've been in a recession since before time began. But things are really looking good! Growth is resilient. Inflation Job Function Email Database is cooling. The job market is humming. While real wages have fallen in most of Europe since 2019, in the US they have risen 6 percent. In fact, as Arin Dube of UMass Amherst has pointed out , real wages for most American workers are not only higher than they were before the pandemic, but they are almost where they would be if the global pandemic that closed swathes of the economy and left millions out of work would never have happened. Which is a big victory. I mean, people spent enough on Taylor Swift's tour that she even deserved a mention in the Philadelphia Fed's Beige Book. Despite the slow recovery of tourism in the broader region, one contact noted that May was the strongest month for hotel revenue in Philadelphia since the start of the pandemic, largely due to the influx of guests at concerts.
Taylor Swift in the city. Basically, people feel a little better. The vibrations continue to improve. The share of U.S. companies that mentioned the word “recession” in earnings calls has plummeted from a high of 27 percent earlier this year to just 11 percent in the latest quarter. As Goldman Sachs said in its own Beige Book Business Sentiment Summary (with Alphaville emphasis below. The company's comments this quarter reflect the belief that a soft landing is possible. While many management teams were pessimistic about the economy at the end of 2022 and following the banking stress in March, sentiment has improved. Several companies acknowledged that the resilience of the US economy had led them to now expect a soft landing. But other companies still anticipate a near-term recession, albeit later than expected, and some companies continue to factor a slowdown in economic growth into their planning and guidance. Even investors are increasingly confident that the economic landing will be soft. Just take a look at Bank of America's latest fund manager survey from August.
Of course, Powell's announcement sparked a flurry of mockery on Twitter from people proclaiming that we've been in a recession since before time began. But things are really looking good! Growth is resilient. Inflation Job Function Email Database is cooling. The job market is humming. While real wages have fallen in most of Europe since 2019, in the US they have risen 6 percent. In fact, as Arin Dube of UMass Amherst has pointed out , real wages for most American workers are not only higher than they were before the pandemic, but they are almost where they would be if the global pandemic that closed swathes of the economy and left millions out of work would never have happened. Which is a big victory. I mean, people spent enough on Taylor Swift's tour that she even deserved a mention in the Philadelphia Fed's Beige Book. Despite the slow recovery of tourism in the broader region, one contact noted that May was the strongest month for hotel revenue in Philadelphia since the start of the pandemic, largely due to the influx of guests at concerts.
Taylor Swift in the city. Basically, people feel a little better. The vibrations continue to improve. The share of U.S. companies that mentioned the word “recession” in earnings calls has plummeted from a high of 27 percent earlier this year to just 11 percent in the latest quarter. As Goldman Sachs said in its own Beige Book Business Sentiment Summary (with Alphaville emphasis below. The company's comments this quarter reflect the belief that a soft landing is possible. While many management teams were pessimistic about the economy at the end of 2022 and following the banking stress in March, sentiment has improved. Several companies acknowledged that the resilience of the US economy had led them to now expect a soft landing. But other companies still anticipate a near-term recession, albeit later than expected, and some companies continue to factor a slowdown in economic growth into their planning and guidance. Even investors are increasingly confident that the economic landing will be soft. Just take a look at Bank of America's latest fund manager survey from August.